AGP Executive Report

Military Pressure Escalates: Trump says he’s “considering” military action against Cuba, just days after DOJ indicted 94-year-old Raúl Castro—while Rubio warns the U.S. is “losing patience” and diplomacy is unlikely. UN Showdown: Cuba’s Bruno Rodríguez told the UN Security Council the U.S. energy blockade is an “act of war,” warning of a humanitarian catastrophe and calling the U.S. “war criminals” if it attacks. Diplomatic Friction: The U.S. blocked visas for senior Russian and Iranian officials to attend the same UN debate, casting a shadow over the session. Energy Crunch, Again: Cuba’s power deficit is projected at over 2,000 MW, with fuel shortages and blackouts driving public anger. Maritime Signal: A Russian diesel tanker (Universal) reportedly sped up and veered away from Cuba after weeks at sea, underscoring how fragile supply lines remain. Pressure Campaign at Home: Separately, the U.S. is reportedly ramping denaturalization efforts—adding to the broader climate of coercion around Cuba policy.

U.S.-Cuba Pressure, New Flashpoints: Cuba’s government says a 15,000-ton rice shipment from China has arrived in Havana, as Díaz-Canel frames the U.S. “energy siege” as collective punishment and warns of a collapse narrative meant to justify intervention. Humanitarian Strain: WFP also delivered 106 tons of canned meat to Villa Clara, topping up the SAF food basket for thousands of vulnerable people. Legal and Political Escalation: The U.S. Justice Department’s declassified documents and Raúl Castro indictment keep fueling protests in Cuba and scrutiny of U.S.-based pro-Cuba activism. Domestic Coping: Cuba’s energy crisis is hitting daily life and even youth sports—baseball championships for under-12/15/18 were suspended. Culture and Soft Power: “¡Quba!”—a documentary on Cuba’s LGBTQ legal changes—heads to major U.S. festivals, while Cuba’s film industry faces calls to rebuild outside state control. Business Reality: Community pharmacies are under pressure to diversify, and Cuba’s home delivery trend shows how people adapt when going out gets harder.

China Aid Push: Cuba says a massive 15,000-ton rice shipment from China has arrived in Havana, kicking off a planned 60,000-ton donation meant to reach “millions of consumers” as shortages and blackouts worsen. Energy Squeeze: Even with U.S. fuel exports rising on paper, Cubans keep reporting daily power cuts and scarcity, while the island’s electric deficit remains severe. U.S. Pressure Escalates: Washington’s latest move—murder charges tied to the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown of Raúl Castro—adds to a broader campaign that includes sanctions and military signaling in the Caribbean. Activists Under Scrutiny: The Trump administration is also targeting humanitarian aid trips to Cuba, with Hasan Piker and Medea Benjamin facing subpoenas, fueling claims of a wider crackdown on activism and journalism. Tourism Fallout: Regime figures show travel collapsing further in early 2026, with far fewer international visitors than last year.

Cuba Under Pressure, Power Failing: Cuba’s grid is still buckling—electric deficit reported above 2,100 MW and Havana facing near-total interruptions—while Washington’s squeeze keeps turning shortages into daily risk. Renewables Policy Shift: Cuba raised the export tariff for surplus renewable power to CUP 90/kWh, a big jump meant to pull more solar and wind onto the national system. Food Aid From China: In the middle of the crisis, Cuba received its first 15,000-ton rice shipment from China, part of a 60,000-ton package Díaz-Canel says will reach “millions.” EU-US Friction: Cuba’s foreign minister hit back at EU officials over “double standards,” arguing the embargo and oil embargo are the real drivers. US Military Posture: The week’s drumbeat of possible escalation continues as the U.S. weighs military action rhetoric alongside sanctions. Business Ripple Effects: Canadian miner Sherritt says Cuba operations are tangled in the new U.S. sanctions environment, with filings and trading suspended.

Humanitarian Supply: Cuba’s food crunch got a jolt as the first 15,000 tons of China’s promised 60,000-ton rice donation arrived in Havana, with President Díaz-Canel saying it will reach “millions of consumers” and key health and education institutions. Energy Pressure: The aid lands as blackouts remain severe—reports say up to 64% of the island could face simultaneous outages, with Havana outages lasting 22 hours or more—while the U.S. keeps tightening an “oil blockade” narrative. Diplomacy Under Fire: Havana is also framing the “maximum pressure” push as a setup for intervention, after the U.S. moved toward indicting Raúl Castro tied to the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue case. Sanctions Scrutiny: Separately, U.S. officials reportedly sent Treasury “requests for information” to Twitch streamer Hasan Piker and CodePink cofounder Medea Benjamin over a March “humanitarian” trip to Cuba. Local Fallout: Even inside Cuba, infrastructure strain is showing—fire at Manuel Fajardo Hospital was blamed on overheating electrical equipment, and services reportedly continued.

US Pressure Escalates: Florida Republicans say Trump has a “narrow window” to force change in Havana as Cuba’s blackouts and shortages worsen, while the administration keeps ratcheting up threats and sanctions. Legal/Intelligence Pressure: Federal agents have subpoenaed Hasan Piker and Medea Benjamin over Cuba trips tied to the “Nuestra América” convoy, and US officials warn Russia and China are expanding intelligence operations in Cuba near US military communications. Humanitarian Pushback: The Congressional Black Caucus and other lawmakers are calling to lift Cuba oil restrictions, arguing the policy is deepening civilian suffering. Cuba’s Counter-Narrative: Havana hardens revolutionary rhetoric as crisis deepens, and Cuba’s leadership rejects US claims of intervention. Background Signal: The week’s drumbeat also includes talk of military readiness in the Caribbean, keeping the “Cuba next?” debate in the headlines.

Cuba-US Pressure Escalates: The U.S. moved from threats to legal and sanctions pressure: new sanctions hit senior Cuban security and repression-linked officials and agencies, while federal prosecutors indicted former President Raúl Castro and pilots over the 1996 “Brothers to the Rescue” shootdown—sparking mass rallies in Havana and fresh talk of a Venezuela-style playbook. OFAC Scrutiny Widens: Treasury issued information subpoenas to Marxist influencer Hasan Piker and CodePink cofounder Medea Benjamin tied to Cuba trips and alleged sanctions-related support. Military Posturing: The USS Nimitz carrier group arrived in the Caribbean as Washington’s Cuba rhetoric hardened, raising fears of military action. Energy Strain Shows Up Everywhere: Cuba’s energy crisis continues to disrupt daily life and culture—Cubadisco’s closing gala was suspended “beyond our control,” and a court sentenced a man to eight years for stealing dielectric oil during an energy emergency. Local Fallout: A baseball game was postponed after stomach illness spread, with fans pointing to food safety risks amid outages.

US-Cuba Pressure Escalates: CIA chief John Ratcliffe’s rare Havana visit—reportedly with a Venezuela Maduro-capture operative—lands as Washington tightens sanctions and ramps up talk of possible strikes, while DOJ moves to indict Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, adding to fears of a “Cuba next” playbook. Humanitarian Strain on the Island: Cubans keep reporting blackouts, fuel shortages, and food disruption, with officials and analysts arguing the energy crisis is worsening under the oil blockade. Energy Pivot Under Fire: Amid outages, Cuba is pushing renewables—solar parks with Chinese support—yet experts warn the investment and grid damage make the long-term targets hard to hit. Local Security Fallout: Artemisa officials acknowledge a rise in crime, especially theft with force, as the state tries to tighten enforcement. Culture & Soft Power: A humanitarian ship carrying energy aid for a children’s hospital docks in Spain before heading to Cuba, while Cuba’s sports hopes continue with tough FIFA U-17 World Cup group draws for Jamaica and Cuba’s Caribbean rivals.

US-Cuba Escalation: Trump and Rubio kept ratcheting up pressure as the DOJ indictment of former Raúl Castro fed fresh talk of intervention—while Havana staged mass rallies in response and accused Washington of using “justice” as a pretext. GAESA in the spotlight: Rubio’s “new Cuba” message blamed GAESA and the ruling elite for blackouts and shortages, and the week also brought a Florida arrest tied to GAESA leadership, underscoring who Washington says really runs the economy. Energy crunch on the ground: Reports of major grid failures and rolling blackouts—plus fuel shortages and hospital disruptions—kept the humanitarian stakes front and center, with Cubans openly demanding a deal and an end to the blockade. International pushback: Russia and China voiced support for Cuba as the standoff deepened. Other signals: Mark Cuban’s Bitcoin comments dominated crypto chatter, but Cuba remained the week’s main political drumbeat.

Healthcare Push: Holguín province is adding six new ambulances with advanced life-support tech across six municipalities, with five more expected in 2026 (four electric, one combustion), as Cuba tries to keep emergency care running despite mounting strain. US-Cuba Standoff: The latest escalation centers on the US indictment of former President Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, with Havana calling it a political move and warning of wider consequences while Washington frames Cuba as a “national security threat” and keeps hinting at military options. Pressure on Daily Life: Cubans continue to grapple with fuel shortages and rolling blackouts, and the blackout reality is shaping how quickly the indictment news reaches people. Humanitarian/Political Messaging: Rubio’s “new Cuba” pitch to ordinary Cubans and talk of humanitarian aid are running alongside sanctions pressure, while lawmakers in Washington push again to limit Trump’s ability to use force without Congress.

Cuba Escalation: Trump and Rubio again raised the specter of U.S. military action as the Raúl Castro indictment tightens pressure—Trump saying it “looks like I’ll be the one” to intervene, while Rubio warns Havana won’t be able to “buy time” and calls Cuba a national security threat. Legal Pressure: The U.S. Supreme Court also cleared the way for more Helms-Burton-style claims, siding with Havana Docks in a cruise-industry fight tied to seized Cuban property. GAESA Crackdown: In Florida, ICE arrested the sister of GAESA’s chief, after Rubio revoked her residency over alleged support for the Cuban regime. Military Posture: The USS Nimitz carrier strike group has entered the Caribbean as tensions spike. Diplomatic Pushback: China and Russia condemned the indictment and threats, calling them coercion and bordering on violence. Energy Reality Check: Cuba set a new, much higher buyback rate for surplus solar power—an attempt to stabilize a grid battered by the wider crisis.

US-Cuba Escalation: The biggest Cuba story this week just landed: the U.S. Justice Department indicted former Cuban leader Raúl Castro on murder and conspiracy charges tied to the 1996 shootdown of two civilian planes, as Washington also moves warships into the Caribbean and Cuba calls it a “fabricated” pretext for aggression. Diplomacy vs. Pressure: Secretary of State Marco Rubio is pitching a “new relationship” to Cubans directly, while Havana rejects the blockade’s blame-shifting and warns of “bloodbath” consequences if military action follows. Legal Fallout Beyond Havana: In a separate Cuba-linked ruling, the U.S. Supreme Court dealt cruise operators a setback in a Helms-Burton docks dispute, underscoring how decades-old property fights keep resurfacing in U.S. courts. Energy Strain Context: The indictment arrives amid ongoing fuel and power stress on the island, with the U.S. tightening fuel access and Cuba denouncing “collective punishment.”

Legal Escalation: The U.S. unsealed an indictment charging former Cuban President Raúl Castro (94) with murder and conspiracy tied to the 1996 shootdown of two civilian Brothers to the Rescue planes, reviving a decades-old rupture as prosecutors move in Miami and Trump frames it as accountability for “killing Americans.” Military Posture: The USS Nimitz carrier strike group is now operating in the Caribbean, adding pressure while Trump insists there will be “no escalation.” Diplomacy vs. Pressure: Cuba’s foreign ministry and leaders denounce the move as a pretext for aggression, while Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez tells BRICS Cuba is still building a sovereign socialist path amid U.S. sanctions. Domestic Strain: Energy chaos keeps spilling into daily life—Cuba suspended university entrance exams and shortened the school year, while state retailer CIMEX markets solar fans as a workaround for blackouts. Regional Context: The indictment lands as Washington also signals a “new relationship” for Cubans, and critics warn of a Venezuela-style playbook.

Raúl Castro Indictment Countdown: U.S. prosecutors are set to unseal criminal charges against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro tied to the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, with a Miami DOJ event expected to make it public today—another escalation in Washington’s pressure campaign. Rubio’s “New Path” Pitch: Hours before that expected move, Secretary of State Marco Rubio went on Cuban Independence Day TV to blame Cuba’s military-linked business network GAESA for shortages and blackouts, and offered $100 million in food and medicine—if delivered via the Catholic Church or other trusted groups, not GAESA. Sanctions Tighten the Screws: The U.S. has also expanded sanctions to top Cuban officials and intelligence/security bodies, aiming to restrict the regime’s ability to “suppress the will” of Cubans. Energy Crisis Meets War Talk: With fuel running out and daily life disrupted, Havana is warning any U.S. move would trigger a “bloodbath,” while Washington signals “fundamental changes” are required. Business Fallout: Canadian miner Sherritt paused plans to unwind its Cuba interests after further consultations, underscoring how sanctions are reshaping foreign partners’ decisions.

Humanitarian Delivery Amid Pressure: A Chinese-owned cargo ship, Asian Katra, carrying about 1,700 tons of food aid (rice, beans, milk) from Mexico and Uruguay reached Havana May 18, as Mexico reportedly paused energy shipments over U.S. secondary-sanctions threats. Sanctions Tighten, Talks Continue: The U.S. says it held talks with Cuba on a $100 million humanitarian offer, while Washington simultaneously escalated sanctions targeting Cuba’s security and top officials. Fuel Crisis Deepens: Cuba’s government says it has “absolutely no fuel oil” and “absolutely no diesel,” with blackouts and protests worsening daily life. War Scare Grows: New reporting claims Cuba has 300+ drones from Russia and Iran and discussed possible strikes near Guantánamo and Key West—Cuba calls the claims a pretext. Legal Pressure Looms: U.S. media says an indictment of Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown could be announced Wednesday. US Domestic Side-Show: TrumpRx expanded by 600+ generics, but it’s still a discount portal rather than a direct pharmacy.

Cuba–US Tensions Spike: Cuba’s president Díaz-Canel escalated the standoff, warning any U.S. military action would trigger a “bloodbath,” after fresh reports and leaked claims about Cuba’s alleged drone capabilities and Washington’s growing military options. Sanctions Tighten: The U.S. also moved to freeze assets and restrict business by targeting top Cuban officials, security and intelligence entities, and ministers—while Havana rejected the premise and called the case a pretext. Energy Crisis Fallout: The pressure campaign keeps colliding with daily life: Cuba says it has run out of fuel, blackouts persist, and even students are scrambling to finish assignments as power and transport fail. Shipping Disruption: Major carriers CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd suspended Cuba bookings, adding another hit to imports. Health Logistics: On the ground, Cuba rolled out 200 electric cars for dialysis patients—small relief amid a much bigger squeeze. US Politics Side-Show: In parallel, TrumpRx expanded with 600+ generics and Mark Cuban joined the push, underscoring how Washington is mixing hardline Cuba pressure with domestic healthcare messaging.